JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Quarterly Valuation

500px-J_P_Morgan_Chase_Logo_2008_1.svgIn the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how JP Morgan Chase fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase) is a financial holding company. The Company is a global financial services firm and a banking institution in the United States, with global operations. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset management and private equity. One of the Company’s principal operating subsidiaries in the United Kingdom is J.P. Morgan Securities plc., a subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan Chase’s activities are organized into four business segments, as well as Corporate/Private Equity. The Company’s consumer business is the Consumer & Community Banking segment. The Company’s wholesale businesses consists of Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset Management segments. Effective January 7, 2014, JPMorgan Chase & Co acquired an undisclosed minority stake in Chi-X Global Holdings LLC.

JPM Chart

JPM data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 6/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $57.61
MG Value $137.57
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $63.95
Value Based on 0% Growth $37.49
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.28%
PEmg 13.06
PB Ratio 1.02

Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013

Total Debt $295,883,000,000
Total Assets $2,415,689,000,000
Intangible Assets $59,313,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,204,511,000,000
Outstanding Shares 3,756,110,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 $4.35
2012 $5.20
2011 $4.48
2010 $3.96
2009 $2.24
2008 $0.84
2007 $4.38
2006 $3.82
2005 $2.32
2004 $1.45
2003 $3.24
2002 $0.80

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2013 $4.41
2012 $4.07
2011 $3.40
2010 $2.92
2009 $2.51
2008 $2.62

Dividend History

JPM Dividend Chart

JPM Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

JP Morgan Chase is a very strong candidate for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  Despite the financial crisis, the company passes all of the requirements of either investor type.  As a result, value investors seeking to follow the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods, should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company to determine whether it would fit in their individual portfolios.  This research should include a review of some competitor companies, through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Wells Fargo (WFC) or other companies listed in ModernGraham Stocks & Screens.  From a valuation perspective, the company appears strong after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.51 in 2009 to $4.41 for 2013.  This solid level of demonstrated historical growth outpaces the market’s current implied estimate for growth of 2.28%, leading the ModernGraham valuation model to return an intrinsic value estimate that is well above the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on JP Morgan Chase (JPM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in JP Morgan Chase (JPM) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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2 comments for “JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Quarterly Valuation

  1. Richard
    February 23, 2014 at 9:38 am

    I am wondering why you don’t list stock value based on the market implied growth rate.

    • February 23, 2014 at 4:18 pm

      Richard – the “value based on the market implied growth rate” is the market price. The implied growth rate is calculated by plugging the price into the intrinsic value formula in place of the value variable and solving instead for the growth rate.

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