Software Stocks

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Quarterly Valuation – May 2014

Microsoft_logo_and_wordmark.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Microsoft Corp (MSFT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, licensing and supporting a range of software products and services. The Company operates in five segments: Windows & Windows Live Division (Windows Division), Server and Tools, Online Services Division (OSD), Microsoft Business Division (MBD), and Entertainment and Devices Division (EDD). The Company’s products include operating systems for personal computers (PCs), servers, phones, and other intelligent devices; server applications for distributed computing environments; productivity applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games, and online advertising. In September 2013, Ericsson completed the acquisition of Microsoft’s Mediaroom business and TV solution. Effective October 23, 2013, Microsoft Corp acquired Apiphany Inc. Effective February 4, 2014, Microsoft Corp acquired an undisclosed stake in Foursquare Labs Inc.

MSFT Chart

MSFT data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $39.69
MG Value $50.20
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $35.86
Value Based on 0% Growth $21.02
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.77%
NCAV $4.88
PEmg 16.05
Current Ratio 3.22
PB Ratio 3.75

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $109,006,000,000
Current Liabilities $33,903,000,000
Total Debt $20,679,000,000
Total Assets $156,119,000,000
Intangible Assets $17,652,000,000
Total Liabilities $68,695,000,000
Outstanding Shares 8,260,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $2.66
2013 $2.58
2012 $2.00
2011 $2.69
2010 $2.10
2009 $1.62
2008 $1.87
2007 $1.42
2006 $1.20
2005 $1.12
2004 $0.75
2003 $0.69

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.47
2013 $2.32
2012 $2.14
2011 $2.12
2010 $1.78
2009 $1.56

Dividend History

MSFT Dividend Chart

MSFT Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Microsoft Corporation is an excellent company for Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors alike.  The company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor and only fails the PB ratio requirement of the Defensive Investor.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and its competitors through a review of Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL).  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.78 in 2010 to an estimated $2.47 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 3.77% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a long position in Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) or any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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