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Banks Stocks

JP Morgan Chase & Co. May 2014 Quarterly Valuation $JPM

500px-J_P_Morgan_Chase_Logo_2008_1.svgIn the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how JP Morgan Chase & Co. fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase) is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset management and private equity. One of the Company’s principal operating subsidiaries in the United Kingdom is J.P. Morgan Securities plc. JPMorgan Chase’s activities are organized into four business segments, as well as Corporate/Private Equity. The Company’s consumer business is the Consumer & Community Banking segment. Effective January 7, 2014, JPMorgan Chase & Co acquired an undisclosed minority stake in Chi-X Global Holdings LLC. In March 2014, Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd announced that JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates has ceased to be substantial shareholder of Aurora Oil & Gas. In March 2014, Slater & Gordon Ltd announced that JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates has ceased to be substantial shareholder of the Company.

JPM Chart

JPM data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 6/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $54.55
MG Value $129.21
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $68.85
Value Based on 0% Growth $40.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.49%
PEmg 11.49
PB Ratio 0.94

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Total Debt $306,463,000,000
Total Assets $2,476,986,000,000
Intangible Assets $58,106,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,257,331,000,000
Outstanding Shares 3,784,710,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $5.06
2013 $4.35
2012 $5.20
2011 $4.48
2010 $3.96
2009 $2.24
2008 $0.84
2007 $4.38
2006 $3.82
2005 $2.32
2004 $1.45

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2014 (estimate) $4.75
2013 $4.41
2012 $4.07
2011 $3.40
2010 $2.92
2009 $2.51

Dividend History

JPM Dividend Chart

JPM Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

JP Morgan Chase is suitable for either Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing the company to other opportunities through the ModernGraham Valuation Index.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.92 in 2010 to an estimated $4.75 for 2014.  This strong level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of only 1.49% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well above the market price at this time.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on JP Morgan Chase (JPM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Be sure to check out the previous valuations of JP Morgan Chase!

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in JP Morgan Chase (JPM) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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