Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Flowserve Corporation (FLS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Flowserve Corporation is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company develops and manufacture precision-engineered flows control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers’ critical processes. The Company operates in three segments: Engineered Product Division (EPD), which includes long leads time, custom and other engineered pumps and pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services, Industrial Product Division (IPD), which includes pre-configured engineered pumps and pump systems and related products and services, and Flow Control Division (FCD), which includes engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services. Effective December 10, 2013, Flowserve Corp acquired Innovative Mag-Drive LLC.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$46.88|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$27.48|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.03%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$1.66|
Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Flowserve Corporation is suitable for Enterprising Investors but not for Defensive Investors. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividend payments, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no major initial concerns. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities. As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.20 in 2010 to an estimated $3.23 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.03% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well within a safety margin relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Flowserve Corporation (FLS)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Flowserve Corporation (FLS) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.