Financial Services Stocks

Northern Trust Corporation Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $NTRS

Northern_Trust_LogoIn the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to whittle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Northern Trust Corp (NTRS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Northern Trust Corporation is a financial holding company that is a provider of asset servicing, fund administration, asset management, fiduciary and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families and individuals worldwide. The Company conducts business through various United States and non-United States subsidiaries, including The Northern Trust Company (the Bank). The Company has a network of offices in 18 United States, Washington, District of Columbia, and 16 international locations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific region. Northern Trust organizes its services globally around its two client-focused principal business units: Corporate and Institutional Services and Personal Financial Services (PFS). Two other business units provide services to the two principal business units: Northern Trust Global Investments, which provides investment management, and Operations and Technology, which provides operating and systems support.
NTRS Chart

NTRS data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 4/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $69.35
MG Value $22.45
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $43.54
Value Based on 0% Growth $25.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.30%
PEmg 23.10
PB Ratio 2.03

Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014

Total Debt $3,579,100,000
Total Assets $105,761,200,000
Intangible Assets $544,600,000
Total Liabilities $97,718,600,000
Outstanding Shares 235,580,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $3.29
2013 $3.07
2012 $2.85
2011 $2.50
2010 $2.76
2009 $3.19
2008 $3.53
2007 $3.24
2006 $3.00
2005 $2.64
2004 $2.26

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2014 (estimate) $3.00
2013 $2.86
2012 $2.83
2011 $2.89
2010 $3.11
2009 $3.23

Dividend History

NTRS Dividend Chart

NTRS Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Northern Trust is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years and the high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor has an issue with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.11 in 2010 to an estimated $3.00 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.30% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) or in any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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