Machinery Stocks

Deere & Company Quarterly Stock Valuation – September 2014 $DE

500px-John_Deere_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Deere & Company (DE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Deere & Company (John Deere) along with its subsidiaries, operates in three segments: agriculture and turf, construction and forestry and financial services. The John Deere agriculture and turf segment manufactures and distributes a line of agricultural and turf equipment and related service parts. John Deere construction, earthmoving, material handling and forestry equipment includes a broad range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape loaders, skid-steer loaders, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders, log forwarders, log harvesters and a range of attachments. The financial services segment primarily finances sales and leases by John Deere dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment. In May 2014, the Company announced that it has completed the sale of its irrigation operations.
DE Chart

DE data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 7/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $82.21
MG Value $302.38
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $113.88
Value Based on 0% Growth $66.76
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.98%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$7.15
PEmg 10.47
Current Ratio 2.22
PB Ratio 4.07

Balance Sheet – 7/31/2014

Current Assets $47,085,400,000
Current Liabilities $21,246,900,000
Total Debt $24,035,500,000
Total Assets $61,748,500,000
Intangible Assets $899,200,000
Total Liabilities $50,918,500,000
Outstanding Shares 536,430,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $8.19
2013 $9.09
2012 $7.63
2011 $6.63
2010 $4.35
2009 $2.06
2008 $4.70
2007 $4.00
2006 $3.08
2005 $2.94
2004 $2.78

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $7.85
2013 $7.11
2012 $5.77
2011 $4.68
2010 $3.68
2009 $3.35

Dividend History

DE Dividend Chart

DE Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Deere & Company is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  From a valuation perspective, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.68 in 2010 to an estimated $7.85 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.98% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Deere & Company (DE) for more perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Deere & Company (DE)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author held a long position in Deere & Company (DE) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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