Apparel Stocks

The Gap Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $GPS

200px-Gap_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how The Gap Inc. (GPS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Gap, Inc. (Gap Inc.),is a global specialty apparel company. Gap Inc. offers apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, children, and babies under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Piperlime, and Athleta brands. The Company operates in two segments: Stores, which includes the operations of the retail stores for Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic, and Direct, which includes the operations for its online brands, both domestic and international. It has Company-operated stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, Japan, China, and Italy. It also has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Gap and Banana Republic stores. Under these agreements, third parties operate or will operate stores that sell apparel and related products under its brand names. In February 2014, GAP Inc announced the Old Navy’s opening of the brand’s first store in China.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $39.43
MG Value $64.45
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $35.24
Value Based on 0% Growth $20.66
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.86%
NCAV -$1.47
PEmg 16.23
Current Ratio 1.71
PB Ratio 6.04

Balance Sheet – October 2014

Current Assets $4,323,000,000
Current Liabilities $2,522,000,000
Total Debt $1,358,000,000
Total Assets $7,819,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $4,964,000,000
Outstanding Shares 437,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $2.70
2014 $2.74
2013 $2.33
2012 $1.56
2011 $1.88
2010 $1.58
2009 $1.34
2008 $1.05
2007 $0.93
2006 $1.24
2005 $1.21

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.43
2014 $2.20
2013 $1.87
2012 $1.59
2011 $1.52
2010 $1.30

Dividend History

Conclusion:

The Gap Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor, on the other hand, has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.52 in 2010 to an estimated $2.43 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 3.86% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of The Gap Inc. (GPS) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on The Gap Inc. (GPS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in The Gap Inc. (GPS) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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