Alcohol & Tobacco Stocks

Constellation Brands Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $STZ

220px-Constellation_Brands_LogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – November 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance):  Constellation Brands, Inc. is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand and Italy. The Company’s beer brands include Corona Extra, Corona Light, Modelo Especial, Negra Modelo and Pacifico. Its wine brands consist of Robert Mondavi, Clos du Bois, Kim Crawford, Rex Goliath, Mark West, Franciscan Estate, Ruffino and Jackson-Triggs. The Company’s spirits brands include SVEDKA Vodka and Black Velvet Canadian Whisky. The Company has more than 100 brands in its portfolio, sales in approximately 100 countries and has about 40 facilities.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $94.39
MG Value $187.93
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $70.78
Value Based on 0% Growth $41.49
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.42%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$31.53
PEmg 19.34
Current Ratio 1.51
PB Ratio 3.45

Balance Sheet – August 2014

Current Assets $2,838,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,876,000,000
Total Debt $6,323,000,000
Total Assets $14,657,000,000
Intangible Assets $9,363,000,000
Total Liabilities $9,170,000,000
Outstanding Shares 200,800,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $4.18
2014 $9.83
2013 $2.04
2012 $2.13
2011 $2.62
2010 $0.45
2009 -$1.40
2008 -$2.83
2007 $1.38
2006 $1.36
2005 $1.19

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $4.88
2014 $4.63
2013 $1.74
2012 $1.12
2011 $0.43
2010 -$0.51

Dividend History
Constellation Brands does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

Constellation Brands Inc. does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio, the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, lack of dividend payments and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets along with the lack of dividend payments.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.43 in 2011 to an estimated $4.88 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 5.42% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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