Oil & Gas Stocks

Phillips 66 Annual Valuation – 2014 $PSX

147px-Phillips66-Logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Phillips 66 (PSX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The Company operates in Midstream, Chemicals, Refining and, Marketing and Specialties. It offers several products and services that provide businesses with fuels, lubricants, chemicals, specialty products and other solutions. Phillips 66 Pipe Line Company operates more than 11,000 miles of pipelines and more than 60 storage terminals in the United States and transports both raw and finished petroleum products. Phillips Specialty Products Inc. (PSPI), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, operates the Company’s flow improver business. In February 2013, the Company formed Phillips 66 Partners, to own, operate, develop and acquire primarily fee-based crude oil, refined petroleum product and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines and terminals, as well as other transportation and midstream assets.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $71.81
MG Value $230.79
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $86.92
Value Based on 0% Growth $50.95
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.74%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.19
PEmg 11.98
Current Ratio 1.32
PB Ratio 1.87

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $18,194,000,000
Current Liabilities $13,769,000,000
Total Debt $6,178,000,000
Total Assets $49,650,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,094,000,000
Total Liabilities $27,904,000,000
Outstanding Shares 565,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $6.04
2013 $6.02
2012 $6.48
2011 $7.52
2010 $1.16

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $5.99
2013 $5.39
2012 $4.40
2011 $2.82
2010 $0.39

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Phillips 66 is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the short dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.82 in 2011 to an estimated $5.99 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.74% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Phillips 66 (PSX)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Phillips 66 (PSX) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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