Retail Stocks

Kohl’s Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $KSS

220px-Kohl's.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – January 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Kohl’s Corporation (Kohl’s) operate family-oriented department stores that sell apparel, footwear and accessories for women, men and children; soft home products, such as sheets and pillows, and housewares. Kohl’s apparel and home fashions appeal to classic, modern classic and contemporary customers. As of January 28, 2012, the Company operated 1,127 stores in 49 states. In addition, Kohl’s offers on-line shopping on its Website at www.Kohls.com. Originally designed as an added service for customers who prefer to shop using the Internet, the Website include a selection of items and categories beyond what is available in stores, with a primary focus on sizes, product line extensions, and Web-exclusive product lines. Only at Kohl’s is a brand of the Company. In March 2012, the Company opened eight new stores. In March 2013, it announced the openings of nine new stores, bringing the Company’s store count to 1,155 stores.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $67.74
MG Value $62.08
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $58.94
Value Based on 0% Growth $34.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.08%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.59
PEmg 16.67
Current Ratio 1.66
PB Ratio 2.37

Balance Sheet – October 2014

Current Assets $6,078,000,000
Current Liabilities $3,655,000,000
Total Debt $4,679,000,000
Total Assets $15,047,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $9,242,000,000
Outstanding Shares 203,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $4.00
2014 $4.05
2013 $4.17
2012 $4.30
2011 $3.66
2010 $3.17
2009 $2.89
2008 $3.39
2007 $3.31
2006 $2.43
2005 $2.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $4.06
2014 $4.02
2013 $3.88
2012 $3.65
2011 $3.32
2010 $3.11

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Kohl’s Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio along with the short dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.32 in 2011 to an estimated $4.06 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.08% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Kohl’s Corporation (KSS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top