Feature Screens

5 Companies to Research with the Lowest PEmg Ratio for the Defensive Investor – March 2015

image (6)There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the five lowest PEmg (price / normalized earnings) companies reviewed by ModernGraham. Each company has been determined to be undervalued and suitable for the Defensive Investor according to the ModernGraham approach. This is a sample of one screen that is included in ModernGraham Stocks & Screens.  Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Defensive Investors may also be interested in reviewing 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014 while also conducting further research into the following companies.

Be sure to check out the archive of this screen!

Hess Corporation (HES)

200px-Hess_Corporation_Logo.svgHess Corporation is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the low current ratio, so the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.38 in 2010 to $8.75 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of only 0.14% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Joy Global Inc. (JOY)

2012_JGI_logo_wikipediaJoy Global Inc. is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  In fact, the company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.89 in 2010 to $4.91 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 0.17% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

National Oilwell Varco (NOV)

National_Oilwell_Varco_Logo.svgNational Oilwell Varco passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor’s only concern at this initial stage is the short dividend history while the Enterprising Investor has no issues. As a result, value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.88 in 2010 to $5.48 for 2014. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 1.85% over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 8.25% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, and therefore returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

500px-Chevron_Logo.svg

Chevron passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The only issue the Defensive Investor has with the company is the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, but is willing to overlook those concerns since the company qualifies for the more conservative Defensive Investor. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, Chevron has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $8.58 in 2010 to $11.43 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 0.42% annually over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 6.63% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)

Aflac Inc. (AFL)

500px-Aflac.svg

Aflac Inc. passes all of the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.65 in 2010 to $6.07 for 2014. This is a strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 0.78% over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 13.23% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation on Seeking Alpha)

What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing those holdings within the next 72 hours.

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