Hospitality Stocks

Marriott International Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $MAR

Marriott_International_Inc._Current_LogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – March 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Marriott International Inc. (MAR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Marriott International, Inc. is a diversified global lodging company. The Company is a worldwide operator, franchisor and licensor of hotels and timeshare properties in 79 countries and territories. It operates in three business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes Marriott Hotels, Marriott Conference Centers, JW Marriott, Renaissance Hotels, Renaissance ClubSport, Gaylord Hotels, The Ritz-Carlton, and Autograph Collection properties located in the United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes Courtyard, Fairfield Inn & Suites, SpringHill Suites, Residence Inn, and TownePlace Suites properties located in the United States and Canada; and International, which includes Marriott Hotels, JW Marriott, Renaissance Hotels, Autograph Collection, Courtyard, AC Hotels by Marriott, Fairfield Inn & Suites, Residence Inn, The Ritz-Carlton, Bulgari Hotels & Resorts, EDITION, Protea Hotels, Moxy Hotels and Marriott Executive Apartments properties.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $80.71
MG Value $72.30
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $27.23
Value Based on 0% Growth $15.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 17.24%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.72
PEmg 42.98
Current Ratio 0.63
PB Ratio -10.60

Balance Sheet – December 2014

Current Assets $1,921,000,000
Current Liabilities $3,060,000,000
Total Debt $3,457,000,000
Total Assets $6,865,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,245,000,000
Total Liabilities $9,065,000,000
Outstanding Shares 289,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $2.54
2013 $2.00
2012 $1.72
2011 $0.55
2010 $1.21
2009 -$0.97
2008 $0.98
2007 $1.73
2006 $1.40
2005 $1.43
2004 $1.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $1.88
2013 $1.33
2012 $0.90
2011 $0.56
2010 $0.66
2009 $0.57

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Marriott International Inc. is not suitable for the Enterprising Investor or for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the the low current ratio, lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.66 in 2010 to $1.88 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does support the market’s implied estimate of 17.24% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, leading the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Marriott International Inc. (MAR)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Marriott International Inc. (MAR) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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