Retail Stocks

Ross Stores Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $ROST

220px-Ross_Stores_Inc._(logo)Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Ross Stores, Inc., is an off-price apparel and home fashion chain. The Company operates through its subsidiaries Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS. The Company offers name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions at discounted rates of department and specialty store regular prices. The Company targets customers are primarily from middle income households. The merchant, store, and distribution organizations for Ross Dress and dd’s DISCOUNTS operate as two chains. The Company has one reportable segment. The Company’s operations include only activities related to off-price retailing in stores throughout the United States. dd’s DISCOUNTS store is located in a shopping center in urban and suburban neighborhood and target customers from households with more moderate incomes than Ross customers.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $97.03
MG Value $144.35
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $54.37
Value Based on 0% Growth $31.87
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.69%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.78
PEmg 25.88
Current Ratio 1.36
PB Ratio 8.81

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $2,263,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,659,000,000
Total Debt $398,000,000
Total Assets $4,703,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,424,000,000
Outstanding Shares 206,900,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 $4.42
2014 $3.88
2013 $3.53
2012 $2.86
2011 $2.31
2010 $1.77
2009 $1.17
2008 $0.95
2007 $0.85
2006 $0.68
2005 $0.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 $3.75
2014 $3.23
2013 $2.72
2012 $2.14
2011 $1.66
2010 $1.25

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Ross Stores Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio, and the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the low current ratio.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.66 in 2011 to $3.75 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.69% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Ross Stores Inc. (ROST)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top