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Saturday, January 19, 2019

CA Inc. Stock Analysis – May 2015 Quarterly Update $CA


500px-CA_Technologies_brand.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a CA Inc. stock analysis showing a specific look at how CA Inc. (CA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CA Technologies is the provider of information technology (IT) management software and solutions. The Company’s solutions help organizations to develop, manage, and secure complex IT environments by providing range of environments, such as mainframe, distributed, cloud, and mobile. The Company operates in three segments: Mainframe Solutions, Enterprise Solutions and Services. The Mainframe Solutions segment’s products help customers and partners transform mainframe management. The Enterprise Solutions segment consists of product offerings, including DevOps, Management Cloud and Security. The Services segment consists of product implementation, consulting, customer education and customer training. These services include those directly related to the mainframe solutions and enterprise solutions.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $30.82
MG Value $44.19
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $28.28
Value Based on 0% Growth $16.58
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.65%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.10
PEmg 15.80
Current Ratio 1.36
PB Ratio 2.42

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $3,987,000,000
Current Liabilities $2,938,000,000
Total Debt $1,253,000,000
Total Assets $10,979,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,537,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,354,000,000
Outstanding Shares 441,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 $1.90
2014 $2.02
2013 $2.07
2012 $1.93
2011 $1.61
2010 $1.47
2009 $1.29
2008 $0.93
2007 $0.22
2006 $0.27
2005 $0.05

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 $1.95
2014 $1.92
2013 $1.81
2012 $1.60
2011 $1.33
2010 $1.07

Dividend History

Conclusion:

As this CA Inc. stock analysis shows, CA Inc. is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets because the company satisfies the more conservative Defensive Investor.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.33 in 2011 to $1.95 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.65% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on CA Inc. (CA)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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