Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Celgene Corporation Stock Analysis – May 2015 Quarterly Update

Celgene-logoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a Celgene Corporation stock analysis giving a specific look at how Celgene Corporation (CELG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Celgene Corporation is a global biopharmaceutical company primarily engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. The Company’s commercial stage products include REVLIMID, VIDAZA, ABRAXANE, POMALYST/IMNOVID, THALOMID, ISTODAX and azacitidine for injection. The Company’s preclinical and clinical-stage pipeline includes Oral anti-inflammatory agents, OTEZLA (apremilast); Next generation thalidomide analogues, CC-122 and CC-220; Cellular therapies, PDA-001 and PDA-002; CC-486; Sotatercept and ACE-536; mTOR pathway inhibitors, CC-223 and CC-115; Epigenetic modifiers, EPZ-5676 and CC-292. Its subsidiaries are Celgene Avilomics Research and Celgene Cellular Therapeutics. The Company collaborated with Acceleron Pharma, Inc. (Acceleron) to develop sotatercept and ACE-536 to treat anemia in patients with rare blood disorders.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $114.58
MG Value $108.08
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $40.71
Value Based on 0% Growth $23.86
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.16%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.26
PEmg 40.81
Current Ratio 4.61
PB Ratio 14.13

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $9,665,000,000
Current Liabilities $2,097,000,000
Total Debt $6,303,000,000
Total Assets $17,481,000,000
Intangible Assets $6,194,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,716,000,000
Outstanding Shares 834,100,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $4.55
2014 $2.39
2013 $1.69
2012 $1.65
2011 $1.43
2010 $0.94
2009 $0.83
2008 -$1.73
2007 $0.27
2006 $0.09
2005 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.81
2014 $1.83
2013 $1.47
2012 $1.11
2011 $0.68
2010 $0.23

Dividend History
Celgene Corporation does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

Celgene Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends, as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.68 in 2011 to an estimated $2.81 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 16.16% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value falling within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Celgene Corporation (CELG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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