Insurance Stocks

Hartford Financial Services Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $HIG

200px-The_Hartford_Financial_Services_Group_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Hartford Financial Services (HIG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. is a holding company for insurance and financial services subsidiaries that provide property and casualty and life insurance, as well as investment products to both individual and business customers in the United States. The Company conducts business in six segments, including Property & Casualty Commercial, Consumer Markets, Property & Casualty Other Operations, Group Benefits, Mutual Funds and Talcott Resolution, as well as a Corporate category. The Company includes in its Corporate category the Company’s debt financing and related interest expense, as well as other capital raising activities, and purchase accounting adjustments related to goodwill and other expenses not allocated to the segments.

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 3/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $41.77
MG Value $69.66
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $26.24
Value Based on 0% Growth $15.38
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.29%
PEmg 23.09
PB Ratio 0.95

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Total Debt $5,653,000,000
Total Assets $246,960,000,000
Intangible Assets $498,000,000
Total Liabilities $227,883,000,000
Outstanding Shares 433,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $3.62
2014 $1.73
2013 $0.36
2012 -$0.18
2011 $1.40
2010 $2.40
2009 -$2.93
2008 -$8.99
2007 $9.24
2006 $8.69
2005 $7.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $1.81
2014 $0.98
2013 $0.48
2012 -$0.20
2011 -$0.06
2010 $0.03

Dividend History

Conclusion:

As this stock analysis shows, Hartford Financial Services is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) grow from a loss of $0.06 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $1.81 for 2015.  This level of earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.29% annual growth over the next 7-10 years, leading the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Hartford Financial Services (HIG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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