Retail Stocks

Target Corporation Stock Analysis – 2015 Update $TGT

200px-Target_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – June 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Target Corporation (TGT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Target Corporation (Target) is engaged in providing everyday essentials and fashionable, and differentiated merchandise at discounted prices. The Company operates in two segments: U.S. and Canadian. The U.S. Segment includes all of its the United States retail operations, including digital sales. The Canadian segment offers retail operations in Canada. The Company’s owned brands include Archer Farms, Gilligan & O’Malley, Sutton & Dodge, Simply Balanced, Market Pantry, Threshold, Boots & Barkley, Merona, up & up, CHEFS, Room Essentials, Wine Cube, Circo, Smith & Hawken, Xhilaration, Embark and Spritz, among others. Target operates through a network of approximately 1,801 stores. The Company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The Company’s general merchandise and City Target stores offer an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy and frozen items.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 1/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $83.73
MG Value $0.00
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $33.55
Value Based on 0% Growth $19.67
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.84%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.23
PEmg 36.18
Current Ratio 1.24
PB Ratio 3.82

Balance Sheet – April 2015

Current Assets $13,198,000,000
Current Liabilities $10,648,000,000
Total Debt $12,654,000,000
Total Assets $40,446,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $26,272,000,000
Outstanding Shares 646,400,000

Earnings Per Share

2016 (estimate) $4.50
2015 -$2.58
2014 $3.07
2013 $4.52
2012 $4.28
2011 $4.00
2010 $3.30
2009 $2.86
2008 $3.33
2007 $3.21
2006 $2.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2016 (estimate) $2.31
2015 $1.70
2014 $3.84
2013 $4.08
2012 $3.76
2011 $3.44

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Target Corporation is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings growth or stability over the last five years and the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $3.76 in 2012 to only an estimated $2.31 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 13.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Target Corporation (TGT)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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