Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Vertex) is a global biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in the business of discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing small molecule drugs. The Company uses precision medicine approaches to create transformative drugs for patients with serious diseases in specialty markets. Vertex’s business is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF). It is also engaged in other research and early-stage development programs, including programs in the areas of oncology and neurology. The Company’s product candidates include KALYDECO (ivacaftor), Lumacaftor in combination with Ivacaftor, VX-661 in combination with Ivacaftor, VX-803, VX-970 and VX-222. The Company’s product KALYDECO is available in the market.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$0.70|
Balance Sheet – March 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Vertex Pharmaceuticals does not pay a dividend.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends, as well as the poor PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a speculative attitude. As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued due to its negative EPSmg. The fact the company is regularly losing money leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.