Retail Stocks

Dollar Tree Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $DLTR

220px-Dollar_Tree_logoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Dollar Tree, Inc. (Dollar Tree) is an operator of discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.00. The Company offers a selection of everyday basic products and also supplements these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. As of July 06, 2015, the Company operated more than 13,600 stores across 48 states and five Canadian provinces. Its stores operate under the brands of Dollar Tree, Dollar Tree Canada, Deals and Family Dollar. Dollar Tree’s consumable merchandise includes candy and food health and beauty care and everyday consumables, such as paper and chemicals, and in select stores frozen and refrigerated food. The Company’s variety merchandise includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines and other items. Its seasonal goods include Valentine’s Day, Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise.

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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $79.10
MG Value $102.00
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $41.11
Value Based on 0% Growth $24.10
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.70%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.63
PEmg 27.90
Current Ratio 9.20
PB Ratio 8.76

Balance Sheet – April 2015

Current Assets $9,336,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,015,000,000
Total Debt $7,820,000,000
Total Assets $10,869,000,000
Intangible Assets $166,000,000
Total Liabilities $8,998,000,000
Outstanding Shares 207,100,000

Earnings Per Share

2016 (estimate) $3.08
2015 $2.90
2014 $2.72
2013 $2.68
2012 $2.01
2011 $1.55
2010 $1.19
2009 $0.84
2008 $0.70
2007 $0.62
2006 $0.53

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2016 (estimate) $2.84
2015 $2.60
2014 $2.31
2013 $1.95
2012 $1.48
2011 $1.14

Dividend History
Dollar Tree does not pay a dividend.

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Dollar Tree Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends, along with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.48 in 2012 to an estimated $2.84 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 9.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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