Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is a supplier of aggregates products (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) and heavy building materials (cement) for the construction industry, including infrastructure, non-residential, residential, railroad ballast, agricultural and chemical grade stone used in environmental applications. The Company operates through three businesses: Aggregates Business, Cement Business and Magnesia Specialties Business. The Company’s Aggregates Business is engaged in mining, processing and selling granite, limestone, sand, gravel and other aggregate products. The Company’s Cement Business is engaged in producing Portland and specialty cements, such as masonry and oil well cements. The Company’s Magnesia Specialties Business includes magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$46.99|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$27.55|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||20.60%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$26.51|
Balance Sheet – March 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation. As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.50 in 2011 to an estimated $3.24 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.6% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.