Joy Global Inc. (NYSE:JOY) has shown stable earnings over the last few years, which may garner some attention from prospective investors. For example, Seeking Alpha contributor Insider Monkey recently pointed out that insiders and large institutions have been buying the company lately. This is a great qualitative consideration to keep in mind, but it is critical to first conduct a quantitative analysis of the company.
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, taught that the most important aspect to consider is whether the company is trading at a discount relative to its intrinsic value. It is through a thorough fundamental analysis that the investor is able to make a determination about a potential investment’s merits.
The model is inspired by the teachings of Benjamin Graham and considers numerous metrics intended to help the investor reduce risk levels. The first part of the analysis is to determine whether the company is suitable for the very conservative Defensive Investor or the less conservative Enterprising Investor, who is willing to spend a greater amount of time conducting further research.
In addition, Graham strongly suggested that investors avoid speculation in order to remove the subjective elements of emotion. This is best achieved by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another. By using the ModernGraham method, one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.
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Defensive Investor – Must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – Market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – Current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – Positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – Has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – Earnings per share has increased by at least one-third over the last 10 years, using three-year averages at the beginning and end of the period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg (price over normalized earnings) Ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price-to-Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – Must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests to be suitable for a Defensive Investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – Current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt-to-Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – Positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – Currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings Growth – EPSmg greater than that 5 years ago – FAIL
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$55.94|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$32.79|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-0.93%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$1.77|
Balance Sheet – April 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Joy Global Inc. passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. Specifically, the Defensive Investor is only concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has seen its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.59 in 2011 to an estimated $3.86 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings decline of 0.93% over the next 7-10 years.
In recent years, the company’s actual decline in EPSmg has averaged around 3.2% annually, and the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to an even more conservative figure when making an estimate. Therefore the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the current price, indicating that Joy Global Inc. is overvalued at the present time.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.