Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cisco System, Inc. (Cisco) designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking products and services related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry. The Company also provides services associated with these products and their use and also provides products and services for transporting data, voice, and video traffic across intranets, extranets, and the Internet. The Company’s business operates in three segments: the Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China (APJC). The Company groups its products and technologies into the following categories: Switching, Next-Generation Network (NGN) Routing, Service Provider Video, Collaboration, Data Center, Wireless, Security, and Other Products. These products, primarily integrated by Cisco IOS Software, link geographically dispersed local-area networks (LANs), metropolitan-area networks (MANs), and wide-area networks (WANs).
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Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$24.01|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$14.08|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.29%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$4.26|
Balance Sheet – April 2015
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Cisco Systems Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the short dividend record. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation. As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.21 in 2011 to an estimated $1.66 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.