Financial Services Stocks

SLM Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $SLM

Sallie_Mae_logo_2009In the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to whittle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how SLM Corporation (SLM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): SLM Corporation is a holding company. The Company is a saving, planning and paying for education company. It is engaged in originating and servicing private education loans it makes to students and their families. The Company also operates a consumer savings network that provides financial rewards on everyday purchases to help families save for college. The Company’s private education loans are made primarily to bridge the gap between the cost of higher education and the amount funded through financial aid, federal loans or customers’ resources. The Company’s loans are non-federal loans and loans not insured or guaranteed under the federal family education loan program. It provides incentives for customers to include a cosigner on the loan and also encourages customers to make payments while in school.

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 3/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $9.07
MG Value $48.30
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $18.19
Value Based on 0% Growth $10.66
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.64%
PEmg 7.23
PB Ratio 2.00

Balance Sheet – June 2015

Total Debt $0
Total Assets $12,875,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,500,000
Total Liabilities $10,912,800,000
Outstanding Shares 432,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $0.56
2014 $0.42
2013 $3.12
2012 $1.90
2011 $1.18
2010 $0.94
2009 $0.38
2008 -$0.69
2007 -$2.26
2006 $2.63
2005 $3.05
2004 $4.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2015 (estimate) $1.25
2014 $1.57
2013 $1.93
2012 $1.14
2011 $0.48
2010 $0.15

Dividend History

Conclusion

SLM Corporation does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years and the inconsistent dividend record.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.48 in 2011 to an estimated $1.25 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 0.64% annual earnings decline and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on SLM Corporation (SLM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any of the companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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