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NextEra Energy Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $NEE

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) is a holding company. The Company operates through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). It is an electric power company in North America with electric generating facilities located in 27 states in the United States and four provinces in Canada. Its segments are FPL and NEER. FPL is an electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. NEER owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generating facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States, as well as in Canada and Spain. Corporate and Other segment represents other business activities, primarily NextEra Energy Transmission, LLC (NEET) and FPL FiberNet. NEET operates through Lone Star Transmission, LLC, a transmission service provider in Texas, and New Hampshire Transmission, LLC, a transmission owner in ISO New England.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NEE – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 5.16
MG Growth Estimate 2.79%
MG Value $72.64
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $74.79
MG Value based on 0% Growth $43.84
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.29%
Current Price $108.74
% of Intrinsic Value 149.69%

NextEra Energy Inc. is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, and high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.35 in 2011 to an estimated $5.16 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

NEE charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$110.23
PEmg 21.09
Current Ratio 0.67
PB Ratio 2.29
Dividend Yield 2.75%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $6,346,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $9,421,000,000
Long-Term Debt $25,235,000,000
Total Assets $77,201,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $55,863,000,000
Outstanding Shares 449,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.57
Dec14 $5.60
Dec13 $4.47
Dec12 $4.56
Dec11 $4.59
Dec10 $4.74
Dec09 $3.97
Dec08 $4.07
Dec07 $3.27
Dec06 $3.23
Dec05 $2.34
Dec04 $2.48
Dec03 $2.53
Dec02 $1.38
Dec01 $2.31
Dec00 $2.07
Dec99 $2.04
Dec98 $1.93
Dec97 $1.79
Dec96 $1.67
Dec95 $1.58

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.16
Dec14 $4.90
Dec13 $4.52
Dec12 $4.49
Dec11 $4.35
Dec10 $4.10
Dec09 $3.65
Dec08 $3.35
Dec07 $2.92
Dec06 $2.63
Dec05 $2.29
Dec04 $2.22
Dec03 $2.09
Dec02 $1.89
Dec01 $2.10
Dec00 $1.97
Dec99 $1.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
NextEra Energy Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $NEE
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/3/2014
NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) Annual Valuation – 2014

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This is not investment advice and all readers should speak with a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decision.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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