Retail Stocks

Kohl’s Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $KSS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Kohl’s Corporation (Kohl’s) is a specialty department store. As of January 31, 2015, the Company operated 1,162 department stores in 49 states and an e-Commerce Website (www.Kohls.com). The Company sells private label, and national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products. The Company’s stores carry a merchandise assortment with differences attributable to regional preferences. The Company’s Website includes merchandise which is available in the stores, as well as merchandise which is available only on-line. Its private brands include Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow, Jumping Beans, SO and Sonoma Life + Style. The Company’s exclusive brands consist of Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang. It also offers products under the Fitbit, IZOD, Juicy Couture, Gaiam, Nespresso and PUMA brands, as well as Jumping Beans collections featuring Disney characters. It also operates a nationwide loyalty program called Yes2You rewards.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KSS – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 4.17
MG Growth Estimate 2.10%
MG Value $52.93
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $60.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.45%
Current Price $55.84
% of Intrinsic Value 105.50%

Kohl’s Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the short dividend history, and the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.65 in 2012 to an estimated $4.17 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 2.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Kohl’s Corporation (KSS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

KSS charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.45
PEmg 13.40
Current Ratio 1.95
PB Ratio 1.87
Dividend Yield 2.90%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $5,829,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,985,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,633,000,000
Total Assets $14,563,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $8,546,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 202,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.15
Jan15 $4.24
Jan14 $4.05
Jan13 $4.17
Jan12 $4.30
Jan11 $3.66
Jan10 $3.17
Jan09 $2.89
Jan08 $3.39
Jan07 $3.31
Jan06 $2.43
Jan05 $2.04
Jan04 $1.59
Jan03 $1.85
Jan02 $1.45
Jan01 $1.10
Jan00 $0.77
Jan99 $0.59
Jan98 $0.23
Jan97 $0.34
Jan96 $0.25

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.17
Jan15 $4.14
Jan14 $4.02
Jan13 $3.88
Jan12 $3.65
Jan11 $3.32
Jan10 $3.11
Jan09 $2.99
Jan08 $2.88
Jan07 $2.49
Jan06 $2.02
Jan05 $1.74
Jan04 $1.51
Jan03 $1.37
Jan02 $1.02
Jan01 $0.74
Jan00 $0.52

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Kohl’s Corporation Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $KSS
34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Kohl’s Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $KSS
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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