Construction Stocks

Flowserve Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $FLS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Flowserve Corporation (FLS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Flowserve Corporation is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company develops and manufactures precision-engineered flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials. The Company operates through three segments: Engineered Product Division (EPD), Industrial Product Division (IPD) and Flow Control Division (FCD). Its EPD designs, manufactures, distributes and services engineered pumps and pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems, replacement parts and related equipment. Its IPD designs, manufactures, distributes and services pre-configured engineered pumps and pump systems, including submersible motors, for industrial markets. The Company’s FCD designs, manufactures, distributes and services a portfolio of industrial valve and automation solutions, including isolation and control valves, actuation, controls and related equipment.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLS – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 3.03
MG Growth Estimate 3.84%
MG Value $48.97
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $43.88
MG Value based on 0% Growth $25.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.52%
Current Price $47.05
% of Intrinsic Value 96.08%

Flowserve Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the inconsistent dividend history, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.41 in 2011 to an estimated $3.03 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 3.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Flowserve Corporation (FLS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

FLS charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$5.67
PEmg 15.55
Current Ratio 2.04
PB Ratio 3.59
Dividend Yield 1.45%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 9

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $2,778,940,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,365,418,000
Long-Term Debt $1,626,150,000
Total Assets $5,312,122,000
Intangible Assets $1,479,045,000
Total Liabilities $3,543,546,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 134,831,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.38
Dec14 $3.76
Dec13 $3.41
Dec12 $2.84
Dec11 $2.55
Dec10 $2.29
Dec09 $2.53
Dec08 $2.58
Dec07 $1.49
Dec06 $0.67
Dec05 $0.10
Dec04 $0.16
Dec03 $0.27
Dec02 $0.16
Dec01 -$0.14
Dec00 $0.12
Dec99 $0.11
Dec98 $0.41
Dec97 $0.42
Dec96 $0.59
Dec95 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.03
Dec14 $3.22
Dec13 $2.88
Dec12 $2.59
Dec11 $2.41
Dec10 $2.20
Dec09 $1.93
Dec08 $1.42
Dec07 $0.73
Dec06 $0.33
Dec05 $0.14
Dec04 $0.15
Dec03 $0.13
Dec02 $0.08
Dec01 $0.09
Dec00 $0.24
Dec99 $0.34

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Companies of the Construction Industry – June 2015
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Flowserve Corporation Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $FLS
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
Flowserve Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $FLS

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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