Financial Services Stocks

Affiliated Managers Group Analysis – Initial Coverage $AMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) is a global asset management company with equity investments in a diverse group of boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The Company manages approximately $620.2 billion in assets through its affiliates across a range of asset classes and investment styles in three principal distribution channels: institutional, mutual fund and high net worth. The Company’s Institutional Distribution Channel, through its Affiliates, manages assets for large institutional investors across the world, including sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and retirement plans for corporations and municipalities. As part of the Company’s mutual fund distribution channel, the Company, through its Affiliates, provides advisory or sub-advisory services to mutual funds, UCITS and other retail-oriented products. Through the Company’s affiliates, it provides advisory services to ultra-high net worth individuals and family trusts.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AMG – August 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 8.06
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $310.46
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $116.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $68.54
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.38%
Current Price $187.56
% of Intrinsic Value 60.41%

Affiliated Managers Group does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.39 in 2011 to an estimated $8.06 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Affiliated Managers Group (AMG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AMG charts August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$63.13
PEmg 23.26
Current Ratio 2.21
PB Ratio 4.07
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,397,700,000
Total Current Liabilities $632,000,000
Long-Term Debt $1,863,400,000
Total Assets $7,678,800,000
Intangible Assets $4,419,800,000
Total Liabilities $5,027,700,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 57,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.92
Dec14 $8.01
Dec13 $6.55
Dec12 $3.28
Dec11 $3.11
Dec10 $2.81
Dec09 $1.38
Dec08 -$0.03
Dec07 $4.55
Dec06 $3.74
Dec05 $2.81
Dec04 $2.02
Dec03 $1.57
Dec02 $1.65
Dec01 $1.47
Dec00 $1.66
Dec99 $2.12
Dec98 $0.89
Dec97 -$2.46
Dec96 -$0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.06
Dec14 $5.67
Dec13 $4.15
Dec12 $2.67
Dec11 $2.36
Dec10 $2.15
Dec09 $2.05
Dec08 $2.46
Dec07 $3.45
Dec06 $2.72
Dec05 $2.11
Dec04 $1.73
Dec03 $1.62
Dec02 $1.62
Dec01 $1.31
Dec00 $0.95
Dec99 $0.42

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.

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