Fertilizer Stocks

Monsanto Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MON

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Monsanto Company (MON) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Monsanto Company (Monsanto) is a provider of agricultural products for farmers. The Company’s seeds, biotechnology trait products, and herbicides provide farmers with solutions that improve productivity, reduce the costs of farming, and produce better foods for consumers and better feed for animals. It manages business in two segments: Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity. Through its Seeds and Genomics segment, it produces seed brands, including DEKALB, Asgrow, Deltapine, Seminis and De Ruiter, and it develops biotechnology traits that assist farmers in controlling insects and weeds. Through its Agricultural Productivity segment, it manufactures Roundup brand herbicides and other herbicides and provides lawn-and-garden herbicide products for the residential market.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MON – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.91
MG Growth Estimate 10.66%
MG Value $146.52
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $71.26
MG Value based on 0% Growth $41.77
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.62%
Current Price $97.00
% of Intrinsic Value 66.20%

Monsanto Company qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned with the high PB ratio while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.87 in 2011 to an estimated $4.91 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Monsanto Company (MON)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MON Charts September 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.98
Graham Number $47.34
PEmg 19.74
Current Ratio 2.58
PB Ratio 5.55
Dividend Yield 1.96%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 17

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $10,589,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,097,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,396,000,000
Total Assets $22,259,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,585,000,000
Total Liabilities $13,921,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 477,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.70
Aug14 $5.22
Aug13 $4.60
Aug12 $3.79
Aug11 $2.96
Aug10 $1.99
Aug09 $3.77
Aug08 $3.62
Aug07 $1.79
Aug06 $1.25
Aug05 $0.47
Aug04 $0.50
Aug03 $0.13
Dec02 -$3.25
Dec01 $0.57
Dec00 $0.29
Dec99 $0.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.91
Aug14 $4.25
Aug13 $3.65
Aug12 $3.19
Aug11 $2.87
Aug10 $2.71
Aug09 $2.78
Aug08 $2.03
Aug07 $1.10
Aug06 $0.44
Aug05 -$0.08
Aug04 -$0.36
Aug03 -$0.65
Dec02 -$0.83
Dec01 $0.33
Dec00 $0.17
Dec99 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Monsanto Company Quarterly Valuation – June 2014 $MON
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/29/14
Monsanto Company (MON) Quarterly Valuation – March 2014
10 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/28/13
ModernGraham Valuation: Monsanto Company (MON)

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mosaic Company Analysis – July 2015 Update $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Analysis – June 2015 Update $CF
Mosaic Inc. Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $CF
Mosaic Company Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $MOS
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $CF
Mosaic Company Quarterly Stock Valuation – October 2014 $MOS
CF Industries Holding Company Quarterly Stock Valuation – September 2014 $CF
Monsanto Company Quarterly Valuation – June 2014 $MON
CF Industries Holding Inc. Quarterly Valuation – June 2014 $CF

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top