Feature Screens

5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2015

5def-und-lows_edited-1

There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the five undervalued companies reviewed by ModernGraham trading closest to their 52 week low. Each of these companies has been determined to be suitable for the Defensive Investor according to the ModernGraham approach.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk.

Be sure to check out the history of this screen to see which companies have been selected in the past.

Here are the five undervalued companies for the Defensive Investor near 52 week lows:

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP)

Helmerich & Payne Inc. qualifies for the more conservative Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the valuation.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.24 in 2011 to an estimated $4.77 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.85% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN)

Franklin Resources Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong fundamentals.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.23 in 2011 to an estimated $3.41 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.47% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Deere & Company (DE)

Deere & Company performs very well in the ModernGraham model and is suitable for both Defensive and Enterprising Investors. In fact, the company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.68 in 2011 to an estimated $7.30 for 2015. This is a strong level of growth and is well above the market’s implied estimate of only 2.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.

Here, actual growth in EPSmg over the last several years has averaged nearly 11.25% annually, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still estimates a growth figure much higher than the market’s implied rate. Therefore, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating the company is significantly undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation)

Monsanto Company (MON)

Monsanto Company qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned with the high PB ratio while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.87 in 2011 to an estimated $4.91 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)

Qualcomm Inc. passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, neither investor type has any initial concerns, which is indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.94 in 2011 to an estimated $3.87 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of 3.69% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 20% annually. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Qualcomm Inc. is undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation)

What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

One thought on “5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2015

  1. Mr Clark, Benjamin if I may :
    Thank you for taking the trouble to share your valuable analyses.

    May I suggest you consider adding in future a line or two reminding us of the economic challenges facing the relevant sector. In the alternate , perhaps consider adding a few words to tell reader what the company does. I am referring here to the addition of just a few words.

    Thank you , and best wishes
    Adam

    Adam Okhai North Carolina and Canada

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top