Insurance Stocks

Anthem Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $ANTM

In the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.

We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to whittle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.

In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.

What follows is a specific look at how Anthem Inc. (ANTM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Anthem, Inc. is a health benefit company. The Company offers a range of network-based managed care plans to large and small employer, individual, Medicaid and Medicare markets. Its managed care plans include preferred provider organizations (PPOs), health maintenance organizations (HMOs), point-of-service (POS), plans, traditional indemnity plans and other hybrid plans, including consumer-driven health plans (CDHPs), and hospital only and limited benefit products. In addition, the Company also provides an array of managed care services to self-funded customers, including claims processing, underwriting, stop loss insurance, actuarial services, provider network access, medical cost management, disease management, wellness programs and other administrative services. The Company provides an array of specialty and other insurance products and services, such as dental, vision, life and disability insurance benefits, radiology benefit management and analytics-driven personal health care.
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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ANTM – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $38,374,831,173 1 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior 1 Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior 0 Fail
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 78.27% 1 Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.52 1 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.74 1 Pass
Score 5
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior 1 Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend 1 Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago 1 Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ANTM value Chart September 2015

EPSmg $8.88
MG Growth Estimate 3.37%
MG Value $135.33
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $128.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $75.46
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.01%
Current Price $146.70
% of Intrinsic Value 108.40%

Anthem Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the short dividend history while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the next stage of the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.25 in 2011 to an estimated $8.88 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.01% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Anthem Inc. (ANTM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ANTM Charts September 2015

Graham Number $139.43
PEmg 16.52
PB Ratio 1.74
Dividend Yield 1.45%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Long-Term Debt $15,468,400,000
Total Assets $64,263,800,000
Intangible Assets $25,817,200,000
Total Liabilities $41,201,200,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 274,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.80
Dec14 $8.99
Dec13 $8.20
Dec12 $8.18
Dec11 $7.25
Dec10 $6.94
Dec09 $9.88
Dec08 $4.76
Dec07 $5.56
Dec06 $4.82
Dec05 $3.94
Dec04 $3.05
Dec03 $2.73
Dec02 $2.26
Dec01 $1.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.88
Dec14 $8.25
Dec13 $7.95
Dec12 $7.68
Dec11 $7.25
Dec10 $6.96
Dec09 $6.58
Dec08 $4.76
Dec07 $4.52
Dec06 $3.78
Dec05 $3.08
Dec04 $2.41
Dec03 $1.84
Dec02 $1.19
Dec01 $0.55

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Anthem Inc. Analysis – June 2015 Update $ANTM
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/15/15
Anthem Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $ANTM
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14
Anthem Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $ANTM

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Lincoln National Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $LNC
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Principal Financial Group Analysis – August 2015 Update $PFG
Assurant Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $AIZ

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please review our detailed disclaimer.

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