Alcohol & Tobacco Stocks

Brown-Forman Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $BF/B

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Brown-Forman Corporation manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, markets and sells alcoholic beverages. The Company’s principal brands include Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s ready-to-drinks (RTD), Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey, Gentleman Jack Rare Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Fire, Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel, Finlandia Vodkas, Finlandia RTDs, Southern Comfort, Southern Comfort flavored line extensions, Southern Comfort RTDs, Early Times Kentucky Whisky, Early Times Fire Eater, Early Times Kentucky Bourbon, Korbel California Champagnes, Korbel California Brandy and el Jimador Tequilas, among others. The Company’s international markets include Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany, Poland, France, Russia, Turkey, Canada and Japan. The Company’s products are sold in more than 160 countries around the world.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BFB – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $21,673,661,438 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.85 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 71.47% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 50.19 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 12.22 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.85 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.80 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

BFB value Chart September 2015

EPSmg $1.99
MG Growth Estimate -1.82%
MG Value $9.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.90
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.94
Market Implied Growth Rate 20.84%
Current Price $100.02
% of Intrinsic Value 1034.04%

Brown-Forman Corporation does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings growth or stability over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.27 in 2012 to an estimated $1.99 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

BFB Charts September 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.23
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 50.16
Current Ratio 2.85
PB Ratio 12.22
Dividend Yield 1.24%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $2,371,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $833,000,000
Long-Term Debt $1,229,000,000
Total Assets $4,334,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,210,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,627,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 208,638,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate
Apr15 $3.21
Apr14 $3.06
Apr13 $2.75
Apr12 $2.37
Apr11 $2.60
Apr10 $2.01
Apr09 $1.91
Apr08 $1.90
Apr07 $1.67
Apr06 $1.39
Apr05 $1.34
Apr04 $1.13
Apr03 $0.97
Apr02 $0.89
Apr01 $0.91
Apr00 $0.85
Apr99 $0.78
Apr98 $0.71
Apr97 $0.65
Apr96 $0.62

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.99
Apr15 $2.93
Apr14 $2.71
Apr13 $2.47
Apr12 $2.27
Apr11 $2.15
Apr10 $1.88
Apr09 $1.75
Apr08 $1.61
Apr07 $1.41
Apr06 $1.23
Apr05 $1.12
Apr04 $0.99
Apr03 $0.91
Apr02 $0.86
Apr01 $0.82
Apr00 $0.76

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Brown-Forman Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $BF.B
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/21/15
Brown-Forman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $BF.B
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14
Brown-Forman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $BF.B

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Brown-Forman Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $BF.B
Philip Morris International Annual Valuation – 2015 $PM
Brown-Forman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $BF.B
Lorillard Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $LO
Reynolds American Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $RAI
Altria Group Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $MO
Brown-Forman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $BF.B
Constellation Brands Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $STZ
Lorillard Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $LO
Molson Coors Brewing Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $TAP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.

 

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