Insurance Stocks

Allstate Corporation Valuation – October 2015 Update $ALL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Allstate Corporation (ALL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Allstate Corporation is a holding company for Allstate Insurance Company. The Company and its subsidiaries, including Allstate Insurance Company, Allstate Life Insurance Company and other subsidiaries (collectively, Allstate) are engaged in the property-liability insurance and life insurance business. It offers its products in the United States and Canada. Allstate operates in four business segments: Allstate Protection, Discontinued Lines and Coverages, Allstate Financial, and Corporate and Other. The principal geographic markets for its auto, homeowners, and other personal property and casualty products are in the United States. Through its subsidiaries, it sells various types of personal property and casualty insurance products in around 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. It sells private passenger auto and homeowners insurance through agencies, contact centers and Internet. It sells these products under Allstate, Esurance and Encompass brand names.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALL – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $25,008,347,541 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 24.86% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.78 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.21 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ALL value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $4.89
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $188.19
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $70.88
MG Value based on 0% Growth $41.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.14%
Current Price $62.51
% of Intrinsic Value 33.22%

Allstate Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.38 in 2011 to an estimated $4.89 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.14% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Allstate Corporation (ALL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ALL Charts October 2015

Graham Number $70.88
PEmg 12.79
PB Ratio 1.21
Dividend Yield 1.86%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Long-Term Debt $5,186,000,000
Total Assets $107,117,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,219,000,000
Total Liabilities $85,819,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 412,600,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.59
Dec14 $6.27
Dec13 $4.81
Dec12 $4.68
Dec11 $1.50
Dec10 $1.71
Dec09 $1.58
Dec08 -$3.06
Dec07 $7.77
Dec06 $7.84
Dec05 $2.64
Dec04 $4.54
Dec03 $3.83
Dec02 $1.60
Dec01 $1.60
Dec00 $2.95
Dec99 $3.38
Dec98 $3.94
Dec97 $3.56
Dec96 $2.32
Dec95 $2.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.89
Dec14 $4.62
Dec13 $3.48
Dec12 $2.31
Dec11 $1.38
Dec10 $1.94
Dec09 $2.49
Dec08 $3.27
Dec07 $6.07
Dec06 $4.84
Dec05 $3.18
Dec04 $3.26
Dec03 $2.64
Dec02 $2.26
Dec01 $2.76
Dec00 $3.30
Dec99 $3.34

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Companies of the Insurance Industry – October 2015
The 16 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/1/15
Allstate Corporation Analysis – July 2015 Update $ALL
The Best Companies of the Insurance Industry – June 2015
Allstate Corporation Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $ALL

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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