Software Stocks

Microsoft Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $MSFT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, licensing and supporting a range of software products and services. The Company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to the customers. The Company operates in five segments: Devices and Consumer (D&C) Licensing, D&C Hardware, D&C Other, Commercial Licensing, and Commercial Other. The Company’s products include operating systems for computing devices, servers, phones, and other intelligent devices; server applications for distributed computing environments; productivity applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; and online advertising. It also offers cloud-based solutions that provide customers with software, services and content over the Internet by way of shared computing resources located in centralized data centers. It provides consulting and product and solution support services.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MSFT – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $432,808,867,601 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.46 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 34.42% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.63 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.46 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.39 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MSFT value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $2.23
MG Growth Estimate 0.58%
MG Value $21.54
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $32.31
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.94
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.88%
Current Price $54.05
% of Intrinsic Value 250.99%

Microsoft Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.12 in 2011 to an estimated $2.23 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MSFT Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.25
Graham Number $23.31
PEmg 24.29
Current Ratio 2.46
PB Ratio 5.64
Dividend Yield 2.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

 

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $121,656,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $49,399,000,000
Long-Term Debt $27,819,000,000
Total Assets $172,896,000,000
Intangible Assets $21,887,000,000
Total Liabilities $95,451,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 8,066,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.49
Jun15 $1.48
Jun14 $2.63
Jun13 $2.58
Jun12 $2.00
Jun11 $2.69
Jun10 $2.10
Jun09 $1.62
Jun08 $1.87
Jun07 $1.42
Jun06 $1.20
Jun05 $1.12
Jun04 $0.75
Jun03 $0.69
Jun02 $0.48
Jun01 $0.66
Jun00 $0.85
Jun99 $0.71
Jun98 $0.42
Jun97 $0.33
Jun96 $0.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.23
Jun15 $2.16
Jun14 $2.46
Jun13 $2.32
Jun12 $2.14
Jun11 $2.12
Jun10 $1.78
Jun09 $1.56
Jun08 $1.44
Jun07 $1.16
Jun06 $0.97
Jun05 $0.82
Jun04 $0.67
Jun03 $0.65
Jun02 $0.63
Jun01 $0.67
Jun00 $0.62

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Microsoft Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $MSFT
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
Microsoft Corporation Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $MSFT
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/14/15
Microsoft Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $MSFT

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Cisco Systems Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $CSCO
Alphabet Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $GOOG $GOOGL
Intuit Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $INTU
Oracle Corporation Analysis – October 2015 Update $ORCL
CA Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CA
The Best Companies of the Software Industry – August 2015
Ansys Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ANSS
Yahoo! Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $YHOO
Autodesk Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $ADSK
Microsoft Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $MSFT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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