Defense Stocks

Northrop Grumman Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $NOC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Northrop Grumman Corporation is a global security company. The Company provides systems, products and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber; command, control, communications and computers (C4), intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR); strike aircraft, and logistics and modernization to government and commercial customers across the world. The Company operates through four segments: Aerospace Systems, Electronic Systems, Information Systems and Technical Services. It offers a portfolio of capabilities and technologies that enable it to deliver systems and solutions for applications. It participates in many high-priority defense and Government programs in the United States and abroad. The Company conducts business with the United States Government, the Department of Defense (DoD) and intelligence community. The Company also conducts business with local, state, and foreign Governments and domestic and international commercial customers.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NOC – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $34,049,235,051 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 385.49% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.63 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.15 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.16 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 7.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

NOC value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $9.04
MG Growth Estimate 11.04%
MG Value $276.24
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $131.02
MG Value based on 0% Growth $76.81
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.06%
Current Price $186.40
% of Intrinsic Value 67.48%

Northrop Grumman Corporation does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.21 in 2011 to an estimated $9.04 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

NOC Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$65.56
Graham Number $82.34
PEmg 20.63
Current Ratio 1.16
PB Ratio 6.15
Dividend Yield 1.61%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 12

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $5,951,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,133,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,417,000,000
Total Assets $23,966,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,458,000,000
Total Liabilities $18,269,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 187,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.67
Dec14 $9.75
Dec13 $8.35
Dec12 $7.81
Dec11 $7.52
Dec10 $6.82
Dec09 $5.21
Dec08 -$3.77
Dec07 $5.12
Dec06 $4.37
Dec05 $3.85
Dec04 $2.97
Dec03 $2.09
Dec02 $1.84
Dec01 $2.37
Dec00 $4.29
Dec99 $3.35
Dec98 $1.40
Dec97 $2.99
Dec96 $2.08
Dec95 $2.36

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.04
Dec14 $8.50
Dec13 $7.63
Dec12 $6.42
Dec11 $5.21
Dec10 $3.88
Dec09 $2.59
Dec08 $1.69
Dec07 $4.18
Dec06 $3.48
Dec05 $2.90
Dec04 $2.52
Dec03 $2.46
Dec02 $2.64
Dec01 $2.99
Dec00 $3.14
Dec99 $2.52

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14
Northrop Grumman Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $NOC
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/2/14
Northrop Grumman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $NOC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Raytheon Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $RTN
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Raytheon Company Analysis – July 2015 Update $RTN
Precision Castparts Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $PCP
L3 Communications Holdings Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $LLL
Raytheon Corporation Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $RTN
Precision Castparts Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $PCP
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $LLL
Lockheed Martin Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $LMT
Raytheon Company Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $RTN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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