Alcohol & Tobacco Stocks

Molson Coors Brewing Co. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Molson Coors Brewing Company (MCBC) is a holding Company that operates as a brewer. The Company has a portfolio of owned and partner brands, including Carling, Coors Light, Molson Canadian and Staropramen brands, as well as craft and beers, such as Blue Moon, Creemore Springs, Cobra and Sharp’s Doom Bar. The Company operates in four segments: Molson Coors Canada (MCC or Canada segment), operating in Canada; MillerCoors LLC (MillerCoors or U.S. segment), operating in the United States (U.S.); Molson Coors Europe (Europe segment), operating in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, Republic of Ireland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and the United Kingdom (U.K.), and Molson Coors International (MCI), operating in various other countries.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TAP – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,980,084,797 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.63 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 19.83% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.85 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.12 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.63 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -2.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TAP value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $2.71
MG Growth Estimate -3.19%
MG Value $5.73
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.33
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.06
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.68%
Current Price $86.41
% of Intrinsic Value 1508.81%

Molson Coors Brewing Co. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.45 in 2011 to an estimated $2.71 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TAP Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.13
Graham Number $46.83
PEmg 31.85
Current Ratio 0.63
PB Ratio 2.12
Dividend Yield 1.81%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,476,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,349,500,000
Long-Term Debt $2,305,200,000
Total Assets $13,397,200,000
Intangible Assets $7,488,600,000
Total Liabilities $5,790,100,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 186,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.38
Dec14 $2.76
Dec13 $3.08
Dec12 $2.44
Dec11 $3.63
Dec10 $3.78
Dec09 $3.87
Dec08 $2.04
Dec07 $2.74
Dec06 $2.08
Dec05 $0.84
Dec04 $2.60
Dec03 $2.39
Dec02 $2.21
Dec01 $1.66
Dec00 $1.47
Dec99 $1.23
Dec98 $0.91
Dec97 $1.08
Dec96 $0.57
Dec95 $0.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.71
Dec14 $2.97
Dec13 $3.17
Dec12 $3.19
Dec11 $3.45
Dec10 $3.20
Dec09 $2.72
Dec08 $2.11
Dec07 $2.14
Dec06 $1.90
Dec05 $1.86
Dec04 $2.26
Dec03 $1.99
Dec02 $1.70
Dec01 $1.38
Dec00 $1.18
Dec99 $0.98

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14
Molson Coors Brewing Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $TAP
19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/9/14
Molson Coors Brewing Company Quarterly Valuation – August 2014 $TAP
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/10/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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