Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Unum Group (UNM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Unum Group is a provider of disability insurance products in the United States and the United Kingdom. The Company’s business segments: Unum US, Unum UK, Colonial Life, Closed Block and Corporate. Unum US includes group long-term and short-term disability insurance, group life and accidental death and dismemberment products, and supplemental and voluntary lines of business. Unum UK includes insurance for group long-term disability, group life and lines of business, which include individual disability and critical illness products. Colonial Life includes insurance for accident, sickness, and disability products, life products, and cancer and critical illness products to employees. The Company’s Closed Block segment consists of individual disability, group and individual long-term care, and other insurance products no longer actively marketed. Its Corporate segment includes investment income on corporate assets not specifically allocated to a line of business.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$8,939,416,133||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||74.58%||Pass|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||13.44||Pass|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.05||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||6.53%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$39.40|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$23.10|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||2.47%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||62.33%|
Unum Group qualifies for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. In fact, the company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial condition. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2011 to an estimated $2.72 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.47% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Unum Group (UNM)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||7|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||246,324,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.47|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.72|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.