Machinery Stocks

A.O. Smith Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $AOS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how A.O. Smith Corp (AOS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): A. O. Smith Corporation operates its business through two segments, which include North America and Rest of World. Both segments manufacture and market a range of residential gas, gas tankless and electric water heaters and commercial water heating equipment. The North America segment manufactures and markets specialty commercial water heating equipment, condensing and non-condensing boilers, and water systems tanks. The Company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products, including water heaters, boilers and others. The Rest of World segment manufactures and markets water treatment products, primarily in Asia. The Rest of World segment includes China, Europe and India. The Company supplies water heaters to the residential market in China with a range of product offering, including electric, gas, gas tankless, heat pump and solar units, as well as combi boilers.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AOS – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,992,607,399 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.27 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 168.61% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 32.68 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.02 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.27 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.31 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AOS value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $2.44
MG Growth Estimate 4.96%
MG Value $45.02
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $35.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth $20.78
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.09%
Current Price $79.87
% of Intrinsic Value 177.41%

A.O. Smith Corp qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.84 in 2011 to an estimated $2.44 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AOS Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.64
Graham Number $33.24
PEmg 32.68
Current Ratio 2.27
PB Ratio 5.02
Dividend Yield 0.90%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $1,413,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $624,100,000
Long-Term Debt $247,700,000
Total Assets $2,600,200,000
Intangible Assets $717,600,000
Total Liabilities $1,177,800,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 89,370,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.07
Dec14 $2.28
Dec13 $1.83
Dec12 $1.71
Dec11 $3.29
Dec10 $1.21
Dec09 $1.18
Dec08 $0.90
Dec07 $0.95
Dec06 $0.82
Dec05 $0.51
Dec04 $0.39
Dec03 $0.59
Dec02 $0.62
Dec01 $0.20
Dec00 $0.42
Dec99 $0.59
Dec98 $0.61
Dec97 $1.82
Dec96 $0.69
Dec95 $0.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.44
Dec14 $2.11
Dec13 $1.96
Dec12 $1.91
Dec11 $1.84
Dec10 $1.08
Dec09 $0.97
Dec08 $0.81
Dec07 $0.73
Dec06 $0.61
Dec05 $0.49
Dec04 $0.47
Dec03 $0.50
Dec02 $0.46
Dec01 $0.50
Dec00 $0.71
Dec99 $0.86

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

A.O. Smith Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $AOS

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Danaher Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $DHR
AGCO Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $AGCO
Snap-on Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $SNA
Joy Global Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $JOY
Rockwell Automation Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $ROK
Paccar Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $PCAR
W.W. Grainger Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $GWW
My Personal Holdings: Deere & Company – October 2015 Update $DE
Allegion PLC Analysis – September 2015 Update $ALLE
Parker Hannifin Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $PH

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top