Retail Stocks

CVS Health Corp Valuation – December 2015 Update $CVS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CVS Health Corp (CVS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CVS Health Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, is a pharmacy company. The Company operates through three business segments: Pharmacy Services, Retail Pharmacy and Corporate. The Pharmacy Services segment provides a range of pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services and operates under the CVS/caremark Pharmacy Services, Novologix and Navarro Health Services names. The Retail Pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs and an assortment of general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, personal care products, convenience foods, photo finishing, seasonal merchandise and greeting cards through the Company’s retail stores, online retail pharmacy Websites and retail healthcare clinics. The Corporate segment provides management and administrative services to support the overall operations of the Company. The Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Omnicare, Inc., provides pharmacy services to long term care facilities.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CVS – December 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $105,189,238,974 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.43 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 119.47% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.42 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.81 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.43 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.87 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CVS value Chart December 2015

EPSmg $3.98
MG Growth Estimate 9.38%
MG Value $108.55
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $57.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.84
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.46%
Current Price $93.24
% of Intrinsic Value 85.90%

CVS Health Corp does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.45 in 2011 to an estimated $3.98 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.46% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on CVS Health Corp (CVS)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CVS Charts December 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$21.80
Graham Number $60.18
PEmg 23.42
Current Ratio 1.43
PB Ratio 2.81
Dividend Yield 1.42%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 12

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $30,753,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $21,434,000,000
Long-Term Debt $26,771,000,000
Total Assets $92,362,000,000
Intangible Assets $50,639,000,000
Total Liabilities $55,188,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,121,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.81
Dec14 $3.96
Dec13 $3.74
Dec12 $3.02
Dec11 $2.57
Dec10 $2.49
Dec09 $2.55
Dec08 $2.18
Dec07 $1.92
Dec06 $1.60
Dec05 $1.45
Dec04 $1.10
Dec03 $1.03
Dec02 $0.88
Dec01 $0.50
Dec00 $0.92
Dec99 $0.78
Dec98 $0.48
Dec97 $0.10
Dec96 $0.26
Dec95 -$0.90

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.98
Dec14 $3.43
Dec13 $3.07
Dec12 $2.68
Dec11 $2.45
Dec10 $2.31
Dec09 $2.13
Dec08 $1.83
Dec07 $1.57
Dec06 $1.34
Dec05 $1.13
Dec04 $0.94
Dec03 $0.85
Dec02 $0.74
Dec01 $0.64
Dec00 $0.64
Dec99 $0.38

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

22 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/29/14
CVS Health Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $CVS
10 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/30/2013
ModernGraham Valuation: CVS Caremark (CVS)

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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