Machinery Stocks

Dover Corp Valuation – December 2015 Update $DOV

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Dover Corp (DOV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Dover Corporation (Dover) is engaged in the manufacturing of equipment, components and specialty systems. The Company also provides supporting engineering, testing and other services. The Company operates through four business segments: Energy, Engineered Systems, Fluids, and Refrigeration & Food Equipment. The Energy segment serves the Drilling & Production, Bearings & Compression and Automation end markets, and provides solutions and services for production and processing of oil, natural gas liquids and gas around the world. The Engineered Systems segment manages its products and services through two business platforms, Printing & Identification and Industrials. The Fluids segment is focused on the handling of critical fluids across the retail fueling, chemical, hygienic and industrial markets. The Refrigeration & Food Equipment segment provides equipment and systems serving the commercial refrigeration and food service industries.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DOV – December 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,837,857,380 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 72.59% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.26 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.73 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.69 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.94 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

DOV value Chart December 2015

EPSmg $5.07
MG Growth Estimate 6.25%
MG Value $106.53
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $73.57
MG Value based on 0% Growth $43.13
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.88%
Current Price $62.22
% of Intrinsic Value 58.40%

 

Dover Corp qualifies for both the Enterprising Investor and the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio and the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.58 in 2011 to an estimated $5.07 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Dover Corp (DOV)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

DOV Charts December 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.40
Graham Number $52.73
PEmg 12.26
Current Ratio 1.69
PB Ratio 2.73
Dividend Yield 2.60%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $2,814,829,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,668,699,000
Long-Term Debt $2,224,943,000
Total Assets $8,478,820,000
Intangible Assets $4,672,092,000
Total Liabilities $4,912,516,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 156,560,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.37
Dec14 $4.59
Dec13 $5.78
Dec12 $4.41
Dec11 $4.74
Dec10 $3.70
Dec09 $1.91
Dec08 $3.12
Dec07 $3.26
Dec06 $2.74
Dec05 $2.50
Dec04 $2.02
Dec03 $1.44
Dec02 -$0.60
Dec01 $1.22
Dec00 $2.54
Dec99 $4.41
Dec98 $1.69
Dec97 $1.79
Dec96 $1.69
Dec95 $1.23

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.07
Dec14 $4.83
Dec13 $4.67
Dec12 $3.94
Dec11 $3.58
Dec10 $2.98
Dec09 $2.65
Dec08 $2.93
Dec07 $2.68
Dec06 $2.14
Dec05 $1.66
Dec04 $1.27
Dec03 $1.20
Dec02 $1.33
Dec01 $2.31
Dec00 $2.71
Dec99 $2.59

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – November 2015
Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – October 2015
Dividend Growth Stocks for the Intelligent Investor – September 2015
My Personal Holdings: Dover Corporation – September 2015 Update $DOV
Dover Corporation Analysis – May 2015 Quarterly Update $DOV

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Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Dover Corp but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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