Construction Stocks

PulteGroup Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $PHM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how PulteGroup Inc (PHM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): PulteGroup, Inc. (PulteGroup) is a homebuilder operating in the United States. The Company’s subsidiaries engage in the homebuilding business. The Company also offers mortgage banking operations through Pulte Mortgage LLC (Pulte Mortgage) and title operations. It offers a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums and duplexes. It has delivered approximately 640,000 homes. It operates in approximately 49 markets located throughout 26 states. The Company operates through its Homebuilding and Financial Services segments. The Company’s Homebuilding Operations include the acquisition and development of land for residential purposes within the United States and the construction of housing on such land. The Financial Services operations consist of mortgage banking and title operations.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PHM – January 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,036,402,279 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.94 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -175.60% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 8.09 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.31 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.94 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.55 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

PHM value Chart January 2016

EPSmg $2.10
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $80.93
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $30.48
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.87
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.21%
Current Price $17.00
% of Intrinsic Value 21.01%

PulteGroup Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years along with the inconsistent dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the insufficient earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $3.12 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $2.10 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.21% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

PHM Charts January 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $5.01
Graham Number $18.48
PEmg 8.09
Current Ratio 2.94
PB Ratio 1.31
Dividend Yield 1.88%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $6,001,027,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,038,361,000
Long-Term Debt $2,191,612,000
Total Assets $8,801,578,000
Intangible Assets $113,440,000
Total Liabilities $4,229,973,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 353,372,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.16
Dec14 $1.26
Dec13 $6.72
Dec12 $0.54
Dec11 -$0.55
Dec10 -$2.90
Dec09 -$3.94
Dec08 -$5.81
Dec07 -$8.94
Dec06 $2.66
Dec05 $5.68
Dec04 $3.79
Dec03 $2.48
Dec02 $1.84
Dec01 $1.50
Dec00 $1.12
Dec99 $1.02
Dec98 $0.58
Dec97 $0.30
Dec96 $0.90
Dec95 $0.27

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.10
Dec14 $2.05
Dec13 $1.62
Dec12 -$1.46
Dec11 -$3.12
Dec10 -$4.19
Dec09 -$3.92
Dec08 -$2.78
Dec07 -$0.46
Dec06 $3.61
Dec05 $3.75
Dec04 $2.57
Dec03 $1.83
Dec02 $1.41
Dec01 $1.10
Dec00 $0.86
Dec99 $0.69

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – January 2016
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – November 2015
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – November 2015
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – November 2015
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – October 2015

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PulteGroup Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $PHM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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