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Saturday, January 19, 2019

Ford Motor Company Valuation – January 2016 Update $F


Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Ford Motor Company (F) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Ford Motor Company (Ford) manufactures or distributes automobiles across six continents. The Company operates in two sectors: Automotive and Financial Services. Automotive sector includes North America, South America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and Asia Pacific segments. Financial Services sector includes Ford Motor Credit Company and Other Financial Services segments. Its automotive brands include Ford and Lincoln. Other Financial Services includes a range of businesses, including holding companies and real estate-related activities. The Company has around 62 plants across the world. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC, it provides automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers throughout the world.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of F – January 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $51,399,443,004 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.15 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -128.15% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.92 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.84 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.15 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

F value Chart January 2016

EPSmg $1.60
MG Growth Estimate 3.42%
MG Value $24.52
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.19
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.59
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.29%
Current Price $12.66
% of Intrinsic Value 51.63%

Ford Motor Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the inconsistent dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.30 in 2011 to an estimated $1.60 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.29% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Ford Motor Company (F)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

F Charts January 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.29
Graham Number $15.60
PEmg 7.92
Current Ratio 3.15
PB Ratio 1.84
Dividend Yield 4.54%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $166,831,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $52,986,000,000
Long-Term Debt $113,334,000,000
Total Assets $219,431,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $191,966,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 3,999,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.54
Dec14 $0.80
Dec13 $1.77
Dec12 $1.42
Dec11 $4.94
Dec10 $1.66
Dec09 $0.86
Dec08 -$6.50
Dec07 -$1.38
Dec06 -$6.72
Dec05 $0.77
Dec04 $1.52
Dec03 $0.13
Dec02 $0.47
Dec01 -$3.02
Dec00 $2.30
Dec99 $5.86
Dec98 $11.31
Dec97 $3.58
Dec96 $2.32
Dec95 $2.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.60
Dec14 $1.79
Dec13 $2.24
Dec12 $1.80
Dec11 $1.30
Dec10 -$1.15
Dec09 -$2.57
Dec08 -$3.67
Dec07 -$1.89
Dec06 -$1.68
Dec05 $0.55
Dec04 $0.39
Dec03 $0.26
Dec02 $1.35
Dec01 $2.52
Dec00 $5.22
Dec99 $6.13

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – January 2016
10 Undervalued Companies for Enterprising Dividend Investors – November 2015
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – November 2015
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – November 2015
10 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Dividend Stock Investor – October 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $HOG
AutoNation Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $AN
BorgWarner Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $BWA
The Best Companies of the Auto Industry – October 2015
Harley-Davidson Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $HOG
Harman International Industries Analysis – September 2015 Update $HAR
Genuine Parts Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $GPC
Ford Motor Company Analysis – August 2015 Update $F
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP
General Motors Company Analysis – 2015 Update $GM

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Ford Motor Company (F) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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