Banks Stocks

JP Morgan Chase Valuation – January 2016 Update $JPM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how JP Morgan Chase (JPM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. JPMorgan Chase’s activities are organized into four business segments. The Company’s Consumer & Community Banking segment serves consumers and businesses through personal service at bank branches and through ATMs, online, mobile and telephone banking. The Corporate & Investment Bank, comprising Banking and Markets & Investor Services, offers investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services. The Commercial Banking (CB) segment delivers industry knowledge, local expertise and service to the United States and the United States multinational clients. The Asset Management segment comprises investment and wealth management. The Company also operates a Corporate segment.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JPM

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $209,640,300,017 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 112.23% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 10.15 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.83 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

JPM value chart January 2016

EPSmg $5.48
MG Growth Estimate 5.00%
MG Value $101.46
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $79.50
MG Value based on 0% Growth $46.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.83%
Current Price $55.66
% of Intrinsic Value 54.86%

JP Morgan Chase qualifies for both the Enterprising Investor and the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, an indication of the strong financial position.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.11 in 2012 to an estimated $5.48 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on JP Morgan Chase (JPM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

JPM charts January 2016

Graham Number $88.61
PEmg 10.15
PB Ratio 0.83
Dividend Yield 3.02%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

 

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec15
Long-Term Debt $309,756,000,000
Total Assets $2,351,698,000,000
Intangible Assets $54,948,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,104,125,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 3,681,130,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.80
Dec15 $5.87
Dec14 $5.29
Dec13 $4.35
Dec12 $5.20
Dec11 $4.48
Dec10 $3.96
Dec09 $2.26
Dec08 $1.35
Dec07 $4.38
Dec06 $4.04
Dec05 $2.38
Dec04 $1.55
Dec03 $3.24
Dec02 $0.80
Dec01 $0.80
Dec00 $2.86
Dec99 $3.69
Dec98 $2.83
Dec97 $2.67
Dec96 $1.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.48
Dec15 $5.23
Dec14 $4.82
Dec13 $4.41
Dec12 $4.11
Dec11 $3.47
Dec10 $3.05
Dec09 $2.69
Dec08 $2.85
Dec07 $3.44
Dec06 $2.78
Dec05 $2.01
Dec04 $1.84
Dec03 $2.08
Dec02 $1.73
Dec01 $2.32
Dec00 $2.97

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Undervalued Dow Stocks to Research – November 2015
The Best Companies of the Banking Industry – October 2015
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/4/15
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analysis – September 2015 Update $JPM
5 Undervalued Dow Stocks to Research – August 2015

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State Street Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $STT
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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