Mining Stocks

Silver Wheaton Corporation – February 2016 Update $SLW

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Silver Wheaton Corp. (Silver Wheaton) is a Canada-based mining company. The Company is engaged in pure precious metals streaming and generates its revenues from the sale of silver and gold. As of December 31, 2014, Silver Wheaton had entered into 18 long-term purchase agreements and one early deposit long-term purchase agreement associated with silver and gold (precious metal purchase agreements), relating to 27 different mining assets, whereby Silver Wheaton acquired silver and gold production from the counterparties for a per ounce cash payment which was fixed by contract, generally at or below the prevailing market price. As of December 31, 2014, gold and silver interests owned by Silver Wheaton included San Dimas and Penasquito in Mexico; Yauliyacu, Lagunas Norte and Pierina in Peru; 777, Canada; Salobo, Brazil; Sudbury and Minto in Canada; Veladero, Argentina; Zinkgruvan, Sweden, and Neves-Corvo and Aljustrel in Portugal.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SLW

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,876,284,005 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.93 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 114.81% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.23 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.10 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.93 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 9.65 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

SLW value chart February 2016

EPSmg $0.73
MG Growth Estimate -0.36%
MG Value $5.64
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.53
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.86%
Current Price $11.78
% of Intrinsic Value 208.71%

Silver Wheaton Corp qualifies for both the Enterprising Investor and the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the short dividend record.  The Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years because the company meets the more stringent Defensive Investor requirements.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.55 in 2011 to an estimated $0.73 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

SLW charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.44
Graham Number $5.60
PEmg 16.23
Current Ratio 4.93
PB Ratio 1.10
Dividend Yield 1.78%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep2015
Total Current Assets $84,083,000
Total Current Liabilities $17,054,000
Long-Term Debt $647,000,000
Total Assets $5,009,177,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $666,356,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 404,540,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.13
Dec2014 $0.56
Dec2013 $1.05
Dec2012 $1.65
Dec2011 $1.55
Dec2010 $0.44
Dec2009 $0.38
Dec2008 $0.07
Dec2007 $0.37
Dec2006 $0.37
Dec2005 $0.15
Aug2004 -$0.08
Aug2003 $0.03
Aug2002 -$0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.73
Dec2014 $1.03
Dec2013 $1.18
Dec2012 $1.11
Dec2011 $0.74
Dec2010 $0.34
Dec2009 $0.28
Dec2008 $0.21
Dec2007 $0.24
Dec2006 $0.15
Dec2005 $0.03
Aug2004 -$0.03
Aug2003 -$0.01
Aug2002 -$0.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Silver Wheaton Corporation Valuation – October 2015 Update $SLW
Silver Wheaton Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $SLW

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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