Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Southwestern Energy Company is an energy company engaged in natural gas and oil exploration, development and production (E&P). The Company is focused on creating and capturing additional value through its natural gas gathering and marketing businesses, which it refer to as Midstream Services. The Company conducts its business through subsidiaries. The Company’s operations are focused within the United States on development of two natural gas reservoirs located in Arkansas and Pennsylvania. Its operations in Arkansas are focused on a natural gas reservoir, Fayetteville Shale, and its operations in northeast Pennsylvania are focused on the natural gas reservoir, Marcellus Shale. The Company engages in natural gas gathering activities in Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$3,268,067,997||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.73||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-180.58%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||-6.14||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||0.70||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.73||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-22.00||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-4.25%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||-$19.29|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||-$11.31|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||-7.32%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||N/A|
Southwestern Energy Company does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and poor PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets, lack of dividends and the lack of earnings growth or stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.31 in 2011 to an estimated loss of $1.33 for 2015. This negative EPSmg does not support a positive valuation. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$14.96|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||Sep2015|
|Total Current Assets||$570,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$782,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||382,098,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$6.84|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||-$1.33|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.