Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities and manufactures protein meal, vegetable oil, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol, and other value-added food and feed ingredients. The Company’s segments include Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Agricultural Services and Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients. The Corn Processing segment is engaged in corn wet milling and dry milling activities. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its United States grain elevator , global transportation network and port operations to buy, store, clean and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley, and resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Wild Flavors’ products include flavors, colors, sweeteners and health ingredients, as well as ready-to-market concepts and complete solutions.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$19,907,789,998||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.63||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-5.69%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||13.70||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.18||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.63||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.65||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Fail|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||-2.33%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$36.24|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$21.24|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||2.60%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||357.16%|
Archer-Daniels Midland Co qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio as well as the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.96 in 2011 to an estimated $2.50 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.6% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$0.05|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||20|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||Sep2015|
|Total Current Assets||$23,045,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$14,130,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||615,000,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.18|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.50|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.