Software Stocks

Microsoft Corp Valuation – February 2016 $MSFT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Microsoft Corp (MSFT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, licensing and supporting a range of software products and services. The Company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to the customers. The Company operates in five segments: Devices and Consumer (D&C) Licensing, D&C Hardware, D&C Other, Commercial Licensing, and Commercial Other. The Company’s products include operating systems for computing devices, servers, phones, and other intelligent devices; server applications for distributed computing environments; productivity applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; and online advertising. It also offers cloud-based solutions that provide customers with software, services and content over the Internet by way of shared computing resources located in centralized data centers. It provides consulting and product and solution support services.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MSFT

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $376,970,363,163 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 31.77% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.62 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.17 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.00 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MSFT value chart February 2016

EPSmg $2.18
MG Growth Estimate 0.28%
MG Value $19.79
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $31.68
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.57
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.06%
Current Price $49.41
% of Intrinsic Value 249.65%

Microsoft Corp does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth of the last ten years as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.14 in 2012 to an estimated $2.18 for 2016.  This level of earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MSFT charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.05
Graham Number $22.68
PEmg 22.62
Current Ratio 3.00
PB Ratio 5.17
Dividend Yield 2.61%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $127,812,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $42,643,000,000
Long-Term Debt $40,679,000,000
Total Assets $180,098,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,055,000,000
Total Liabilities $103,318,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 8,028,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.36
Jun2015 $1.48
Jun2014 $2.63
Jun2013 $2.58
Jun2012 $2.00
Jun2011 $2.69
Jun2010 $2.10
Jun2009 $1.62
Jun2008 $1.87
Jun2007 $1.42
Jun2006 $1.20
Jun2005 $1.12
Jun2004 $0.75
Jun2003 $0.69
Jun2002 $0.48
Jun2001 $0.66
Jun2000 $0.85
Jun1999 $0.71
Jun1998 $0.42
Jun1997 $0.33
Jun1996 $0.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.18
Jun2015 $2.16
Jun2014 $2.46
Jun2013 $2.32
Jun2012 $2.14
Jun2011 $2.12
Jun2010 $1.78
Jun2009 $1.56
Jun2008 $1.44
Jun2007 $1.16
Jun2006 $0.97
Jun2005 $0.82
Jun2004 $0.67
Jun2003 $0.65
Jun2002 $0.63
Jun2001 $0.67
Jun2000 $0.62

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Microsoft Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $MSFT
Microsoft Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $MSFT
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
Microsoft Corporation Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $MSFT
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/14/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – February 2016 $CSCO
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Intuit Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $INTU
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Ansys Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $ANSS
Yahoo! Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $YHOO
Microsoft Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $MSFT
Cisco Systems Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $CSCO
Alphabet Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $GOOG $GOOGL
Intuit Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $INTU

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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