IT Hardware Stocks

Western Digital Corp Valuation – February 2016 $WDC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Western Digital Corp (WDC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Western Digital Corporation, is a data storage solutions company. The Company is a developer, manufacturer and provider of data storage solutions that enable consumers, businesses, governments and other organizations to create, manage, experience and preserve digital content. The Company’s Technology product includes: Hard Disk Drives and Solid-State Drives. Hard Disk Drives, provide non-volatile data storage. Solid-State Drives, are semiconductor and non-volatile media. The Company offers solutions including: Enterprise Storage Solutions, Client Desktop and Notebook PCs, Branded Product Solutions, Consumer Electronics Solutions. The Company’s products are marketed under the HGST, WD and G-Technology brand names.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of WDC – February 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,353,094,393 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.76 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 106.53% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.35 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.98 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.76 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.36 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

WDC value Chart February 2016

EPSmg $5.46
MG Growth Estimate 2.30%
MG Value $71.58
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $79.22
MG Value based on 0% Growth $46.44
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.58%
Current Price $40.14
% of Intrinsic Value 56.07%

Western Digital Corp qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.74 in 2012 to an estimated $5.46 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.58% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

WDC Charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $12.99
Graham Number $64.83
PEmg 7.35
Current Ratio 2.76
PB Ratio 0.98
Dividend Yield 4.98%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $8,948,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,245,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,062,000,000
Total Assets $15,466,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,058,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,909,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 234,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.53
Jun2015 $6.18
Jun2014 $6.68
Jun2013 $3.98
Jun2012 $6.58
Jun2011 $3.09
Jun2010 $5.93
Jun2009 $2.08
Jun2008 $3.84
Jun2007 $2.50
Jun2006 $1.76
Jun2005 $0.90
Jun2004 $0.69
Jun2003 $0.87
Jun2002 $0.34
Jun2001 -$0.31
Jun2000 -$2.69
Jun1999 -$5.51
Jun1998 -$3.32
Jun1997 $2.86
Jun1996 $1.01

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.46
Jun2015 $5.72
Jun2014 $5.41
Jun2013 $4.63
Jun2012 $4.74
Jun2011 $3.71
Jun2010 $3.75
Jun2009 $2.51
Jun2008 $2.46
Jun2007 $1.63
Jun2006 $1.10
Jun2005 $0.68
Jun2004 $0.31
Jun2003 -$0.41
Jun2002 -$1.46
Jun2001 -$2.17
Jun2000 -$2.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stocks for the Defensive Investor – February 2016
The Best Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – September 2015
The 20 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/25/15
Western Digital Corporation Analysis – July 2015 Update $WDC
The Best Value Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – May 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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