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Emerson Electric Co Valuation – February 2016 $EMR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Emerson Electric Co (EMR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Emerson Electric Co. is engaged in offering technology and engineering together that provides solutions for customers in industrial, commercial, and consumer markets around the world. The company operates through five business segments: Process Management, Industrial Automation, Network Power, Climate Technologies, and Commercial & Residential Solutions. The Process Management segment provides measurement, control and diagnostic capabilities for automated industrial processes. The Industrial Automation segment provides integrated manufacturing solutions to its customers at the source of manufacturing their own products. The Network Power segment designs, manufactures, installs and maintains products providing grid-to-chip electric power conditioning. The Climate Technologies segment provides products and services for the climate control industry. The Company’s Commercial & Residential Solutions segment offers a range of tools, storage products and appliance solutions.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EMR

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $29,376,334,887 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.18 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 23.90% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.49 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.03 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.18 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EMR value chart February 2016

EPSmg $3.18
MG Growth Estimate 1.79%
MG Value $38.39
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.05
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.00
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.99%
Current Price $46.02
% of Intrinsic Value 119.86%

Emerson Electric Co. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.84 in 2012 to an estimated $3.18 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.99% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.75
Graham Number $27.40
PEmg 14.49
Current Ratio 1.18
PB Ratio 4.03
Dividend Yield 4.10%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $9,694,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $8,202,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,043,000,000
Total Assets $21,552,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,068,000,000
Total Liabilities $14,096,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 652,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.88
Sep2015 $3.99
Sep2014 $3.03
Sep2013 $2.76
Sep2012 $2.67
Sep2011 $3.27
Sep2010 $2.84
Sep2009 $2.27
Sep2008 $3.06
Sep2007 $2.66
Sep2006 $2.24
Sep2005 $1.70
Sep2004 $1.49
Sep2003 $1.30
Sep2002 $0.15
Sep2001 $1.20
Sep2000 $1.65
Sep1999 $1.50
Sep1998 $1.39
Sep1997 $1.26
Sep1996 $1.14

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.18
Sep2015 $3.26
Sep2014 $2.91
Sep2013 $2.82
Sep2012 $2.84
Sep2011 $2.89
Sep2010 $2.67
Sep2009 $2.52
Sep2008 $2.50
Sep2007 $2.11
Sep2006 $1.68
Sep2005 $1.32
Sep2004 $1.14
Sep2003 $1.03
Sep2002 $0.99
Sep2001 $1.41
Sep2000 $1.47

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – January 2015
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/27/14
Emerson Electric Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $EMR
10 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/21/13
ModernGraham Valuation: Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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