Financial Services Stocks

T.Rowe Price Group Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $TROW

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how T.Rowe Price Group Inc (TROW) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. is a financial services holding company. The Company provides global investment management services to individual and institutional investors in the sponsored T. Rowe Price mutual funds distributed in the United States and other investment portfolios. Its assets under management are accumulated from a client base across four primary distribution channels: third-party financial intermediaries that distribute its managed investment portfolios in the United States and other countries; individual United States investors on a direct basis; the United States defined contribution retirement plans, and institutional investors globally. The assets that it manages include a range of the United States and international stock, blended asset, bond and money market mutual funds, and other investment portfolios. It offers advisory services and a distribution management service. It provides administrative services as ancillary services to its investment advisory clients.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TROW

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $17,674,556,183 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.69 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 125.89% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.54 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.85 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.69 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TROW value chart February 2016

EPSmg $4.25
MG Growth Estimate 8.21%
MG Value $105.86
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A
MG Value based on 3% Growth $61.61
MG Value based on 0% Growth $36.11
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.02%
Current Price $70.26
% of Intrinsic Value 66.37%

T. Rowe Price Group Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.75 in 2012 to an estimated $4.25 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.02% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price. T. Rowe Price Group Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TROW charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.88
Graham Number $41.77
PEmg 16.54
Current Ratio 4.69
PB Ratio 3.85
Dividend Yield 2.96%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $1,618,300,000
Total Current Liabilities $344,900,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $5,106,900,000
Intangible Assets $665,700,000
Total Liabilities $344,900,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 260,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.08
Dec2015 $4.63
Dec2014 $4.55
Dec2013 $3.90
Dec2012 $3.36
Dec2011 $2.92
Dec2010 $2.53
Dec2009 $1.65
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $2.40
Dec2006 $1.90
Dec2005 $1.58
Dec2004 $1.26
Dec2003 $0.88
Dec2002 $0.76
Dec2001 $0.76
Dec2000 $1.04
Dec1999 $0.93
Dec1998 $0.67
Dec1997 $0.57
Dec1996 $0.40

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.25
Dec2015 $4.18
Dec2014 $3.79
Dec2013 $3.23
Dec2012 $2.75
Dec2011 $2.38
Dec2010 $2.09
Dec2009 $1.87
Dec2008 $1.92
Dec2007 $1.85
Dec2006 $1.47
Dec2005 $1.19
Dec2004 $0.98
Dec2003 $0.85
Dec2002 $0.83
Dec2001 $0.84
Dec2000 $0.83

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Dividend Growth Stocks for Intelligent Investors – February 2016
T.Rowe Price Group Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $TROW
The Best Stocks of the Financial Services Industry – September 2015
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – August 2015
The 10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 6/20/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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