IT Hardware Stocks

NetApp Inc Valuation – March 2016 $NTAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how NetApp Inc (NTAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): NetApp, Inc. (NetApp) is engaged in providing software, systems and services to manage and store customer data. The Company offers a portfolio of products and services to a range of customer workloads across various data types and deployment models. Its data management solutions enable customers on-premises or in a public cloud resource to control, integrate, move and manage it. It offers both all-flash arrays and hybrid flash arrays and its portfolio includes hybrid and all-flash storage offerings. The Company also offers FlexPod solutions for workloads, such as big data, HPC and video analytics that integrate Hadoop. Its scale-out fabric-attached storage (FAS) platform uses the NetApp Data ONTAP storage operating system. Its Data ONTAP software delivers data protection, data management and software for virtualized, shared infrastructures, cloud computing and mixed workload business applications. The Company focuses on the data management and storage markets.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NTAP

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,616,592,961 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.45 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 214.29% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.61 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.55 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.45 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.42 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

NTAP value chart March 2016

EPSmg $1.83
MG Growth Estimate 6.30%
MG Value $38.71
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $26.59
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.59
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.05%
Current Price $26.79
% of Intrinsic Value 69.21%

NetApp Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.29 in 2012 to an estimated $1.83 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

NetApp Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

NTAP charts March 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.31
Graham Number $22.68
PEmg 14.61
Current Ratio 2.45
PB Ratio 2.55
Dividend Yield 2.63%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Jan2016
Total Current Assets $6,064,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,476,000,000
Long-Term Debt $1,490,000,000
Total Assets $8,785,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,064,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,676,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 296,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.14
Apr2015 $1.75
Apr2014 $1.83
Apr2013 $1.37
Apr2012 $1.58
Apr2011 $1.71
Apr2010 $1.13
Apr2009 $0.19
Apr2008 $0.86
Apr2007 $0.77
Apr2006 $0.69
Apr2005 $0.59
Apr2004 $0.42
Apr2003 $0.22
Apr2002 $0.01
Apr2001 $0.21
Apr2000 $0.21
Apr1999 $0.11
Apr1998 $0.07
Apr1997 $0.00
Apr1996 $0.03

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.83
Apr2015 $1.67
Apr2014 $1.59
Apr2013 $1.38
Apr2012 $1.29
Apr2011 $1.08
Apr2010 $0.75
Apr2009 $0.58
Apr2008 $0.74
Apr2007 $0.63
Apr2006 $0.50
Apr2005 $0.37
Apr2004 $0.24
Apr2003 $0.15
Apr2002 $0.12
Apr2001 $0.16
Apr2000 $0.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15
The Best Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – September 2015
The 10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 6/20/15
NetApp Inc. Analysis – June 2015 Update $NTAP
The Best Value Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – May 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Agilent Technologies Inc Valuation – February 2016
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Xilinx Inc Valuation – February 2016 $XLNX
Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – February 2016 $TXN
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
Ametek Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $AME

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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